Russia amplifies calls for civil war in the U.S.
One Russian Twitter account even suggested sending "informational weapons" to Texas.
The ongoing controversy at the border in Texas has dominated the headlines recently — not only in U.S. newspapers, but also in Russian propaganda outlets, which have published dozens of inflammatory articles calling the border dispute a “constitutional crisis” and an “unmitigated disaster,” and warning of, or possibly cheering for, civil war. But that’s not the only evidence of Russia’s involvement in inflaming tensions over border-related issues — there has also been a sudden surge of Russian-language tweets promoting the “Free Texas” secessionist movement, which was heavily promoted by the notorious Internet Research Agency during Russia’s 2016 election interference campaign. Taken together, this points to a possible ongoing and coordinated disinformation campaign being waged by Russia against the American public, raising concerns about potential on-the-ground activities in Texas as well as Russia’s intentions for future information operations targeting the upcoming presidential election.
Russia has a long history of targeting immigration-related issues in the U.S. and Europe, largely because immigration is a polarizing issue that can be used to sow divisions and portray Western democracies as unsafe, incompetent, and hypocritical. This is part of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy, which seeks to undermine and destabilize democratic processes through a variety of means, including and especially information warfare. During Russia’s 2016 election interference campaign, immigration took center stage, with a particular emphasis on border-related conflicts and inflaming anti-immigrant sentiment. As part of this campaign, Russia was also found to have organized anti-immigrant rallies and protests in Texas and other states in the lead-up to the 2016 election.
It appears that Russia is now up to the same dirty tricks again, using state propaganda outlets RT and Sputnik to publish a flood of articles about the ongoing border controversy in which Texas defied orders from the federal government to allow border agents to take apart a barbed wire fence installed by Texas’ governor, creating a clash between state and federal powers that prompted 26 GOP-led states to pledge to send National Guard troops to assist Texas in its standoff with federal authorities.
To get an idea of whether Russian state media was exploiting the current situation to exacerbate tensions in the U.S., I used Google’s Advanced Search feature to perform several different keyword queries, limiting my results to those published on RT.com or SputnikGlobe.com within the past 2, 4, or 6 weeks. I also used RT and Sputnik’s native keyword features, which allowed me to browse all articles tagged with the selected keywords (e.g., “immigration,” “border security,” “illegal migration,” etc.).
As you can see in the sample of articles below, Russian propaganda outlet RT has published articles on the topic that seek to polarize public opinion by playing up both sides of the controversy, a strategy that one former RT employee referred to as “anything that causes chaos.” Some articles promoted the GOP position and echoed anti-Biden talking points, while others condemned GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and the Texas government.
This tactic — amplifying extremes on both sides of a divisive issue — comes straight out of Russia’s disinformation playbook and was used extensively during the 2016 election interference campaign. Russia even organized dueling rallies in Texas that were meant to divide the American public, according to evidence uncovered during the investigation into Russian interference. Other prominent themes displayed in RT’s coverage of the Texas border conflict included anti-immigrant sentiment, depictions of the U.S. in a state of chaos and disorder, and heated rhetoric about the border conflict spilling over into a civil war. Additionally, RT featured coverage of the so-called convoy that plans to convene at the Texas border this weekend — a finding that aligns with a study that I published in 2022 about Russia’s involvement in Canada’s far-right truck convoy.
This follows a familiar pattern in which Russia disseminates propaganda and disinformation demonizing immigrants and portraying them as disease-ridden or as dangerous criminals, then weaponizes the backlash in order to promote far-right, pro-Russia candidates and parties with harsh anti-immigrant agendas as the “solution” to a problem they themselves helped to create.
Sputnik News, another state-sponsored propaganda arm, published even more sensationalist and extreme headlines about the border controversy, warning that the US is in the grips of an “unmitigated disaster” and “constitutional crisis” that could soon erupt into a “huge explosion.” Several articles promoted the idea of Texas engaging in active conflict with the federal government, while another article called the border situation an “extremely dangerous” sign of “growing US dysfunction” that could spark a “civil war.”
Even more damning evidence of Russia’s involvement in the Texas border controversy emerged on Twitter. I discovered this evidence while performing a search (using Twitter’s native search feature) for “Free Texas” in Russian language. This phrase and associated hashtag were used extensively, and nearly exclusively, by Russian accounts associated with the notorious Internet Research Agency, which housed the 2016 election interference operation. Although the volume of tweets returned was not particularly high, it represented a significant increase in use compared to the previous three years. The phrase was only used in five tweets in 2021, eight tweets in 2022, and three tweets in 2023 — but between Jan. 25-28 of this year, the phrase was used half a dozen times every single day.
Despite the low overall volume of tweets, the very fact that the phrase is being used again and at a higher rate than at any point in the past three years is notable, particularly because the phrase is so closely tied to the Internet Research Agency and Russian information operations. Russia has been extensively involved in promoting secessionist movements in Texas and elsewhere in the U.S. and globally, and the leaders of several far-right secessionist groups in Texas have been found to have deep ties to Russia.
In one particularly interesting exchange within this account cluster, a Russian language account appealed to RT’s editor-in-chief Margarita Simonovna Simonyan to establish a platform with “resources” to “help the freedom-loving people of Texas.” One of the replies to the tweet suggested sending “weapons,” to which the original poster responded: “Well, for now informational.”
Previously, Simonyan has referred to RT as an “information weapon” and suggested that the propaganda outlet is on par with the country’s defense ministry.
So what inferences can we make based on this data? As I described in a previously published study, the extensive involvement of Russian state-controlled media is a pretty solid indicator that an issue is at least somewhat of a priority for the Russian government. That’s because outlets like RT and Sputnik don’t have editorial independence, but rather take direction from higher-ups, who are ultimately relaying orders from Russian government and intelligence officials. Occupying a central role within a larger disinformation ecosystem, RT and Sputnik have been described by the US State Department as “key state-funded and directed global messengers using the guise of conventional international media outlets to provide disinformation and propaganda support for the Kremlin’s foreign policy objectives.” In other words, RT’s decisions about what to publish and what topics to focus on are not arbitrary, nor are they driven purely by the news cycle. Rather, they reflect the Kremlin’s foreign policy priorities and represent a visible indicator of possible covert activities being undertaken by Russian intelligence agencies.
The fact that we also see Russian language accounts tweeting a phrase closely associated with the Internet Research Agency adds another layer of evidence, representing the second major instrument of Russian state-sponsored disinformation campaigns. As described in a 2019 RAND report detailing Russian disinformation activities, “two sets of known state-affiliated actors play significant roles in information warfare generally and in social media in particular. The first set consists of state-sponsored media organizations—specifically, RT and Sputnik, both of which have been described as Russia’s propaganda and disinformation machines. […] The second set of state-affiliated actors that played a significant role is troll farms [like the Internet Research Agency].”
Millions of Americans are up in arms over what they perceive as a lack of security at our physical border with Mexico, yet few people seem concerned about the complete lack of security along our virtual borders.
In this case, it appears that both sets of actors are present, making it even more likely that this is, indeed a Russian information operation, or at least part of one. With the 2024 election just around the corner, these findings are an alarming reminder that Russia never stopped interfering in domestic politics in the U.S. and continues to try to use homegrown protest movements and societal flashpoints as an opportunity to exacerbate social divides and sow discord as part of its asymmetric assault on western democracies. For example, as I reported in an exclusive piece on Weaponized earlier this year, Russia was involved in a disinformation campaign in which they tried to undermine US support for continuing aid to Ukraine by positioning it as the reason that the US government wasn’t adequately assisting those affected by the Hawaii fires. We have also already seen evidence of Russia promoting the candidacy of RFK Jr., a possible indicator that they have identified the 2024 election as a target. To make matters worse, thanks to Elon Musk and the changes he has made to Twitter’s policies, Russian government and propaganda accounts have seen a surge of new followers and increased engagement, meaning that any Kremlin disinformation campaigns will reach a larger number of people, with little chance of being acted upon by Twitter.
Russia is likely acutely aware of these changes at Twitter, and it’s possible that the activity described in this article represents a sort of trial run designed to see how much they can get away with in this new environment. If recent history is any indication, the answer is quite a lot. But that’s not because Russia’s disinformation campaigns are particularly sophisticated or elaborate, but rather because we are easy targets and have failed to take appropriate actions to guard ourselves against malign foreign influence. And that’s the real irony of this entire situation: Millions of Americans are up in arms over what they perceive as a lack of security at our physical border with Mexico, yet few people seem concerned about the complete lack of security along our virtual borders. If another country were sending armed troops into the US to see how long it took them to get across the border and how far they could travel or how much damage they could cause before getting caught, we would launch an immediate military response — yet when a hostile foreign government sends digital troops armed with “information weapons” to disrupt American society and promote rhetoric that has repeatedly incited deadly violence within our borders, we not only allow it to happen, but in some cases, our fellow citizens and news media even participate in the attack. Perhaps instead of fear-mongering so much about who might be trying to cross our physical border, we should start worrying a little bit more about who has already breached the digital border.
With all of the calls for disturbance and unrest, a reasonable and prudent person could be forgiven for wondering why there has been no call for a clean-up of the slop and the sludge that passes for social media in our country. The INTERNET is an industry of tens of Billions of dollars.....
and "This" is the best we can get from it?